Atletico Madrid 3–0 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mallorca

Koke 79'

A. Morata 45+4', 29' (pen)

7/3/2020

La Liga · Round 34Estadio Wanda Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Atletico Madrid60%

×Draw22%

Mallorca18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.91

Atletico Madrid

1.88

Mallorca

0.91

Atletico Madrid creates 107% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 46 away

2.01

creates per match

0.93

0.88

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

2.01

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

0.88

Mallorca

1.74

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.22scores more

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

82%

Atletico Madrid or Mallorca

78%

Draw or Mallorca

40%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

35%

Mallorca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

85%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

56%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

29%

Mallorca 1+ goals

60%

Mallorca 2+ goals

23%

Mallorca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

77%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 2.01 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

60%

level

22%

Mallorca scores more

18%

Atletico Madrid at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Álvaro Morata

Atletico Madrid · F

8.7

Match Events

26'

A. Sedlar

29'

A. MorataPenalty

44'

Saul

45+4'

A. Morata↳ Koke

55'

Joao Felix← A. Correa

55'

Y. Carrasco← Vitolo

57'

A. Trajkovski← L. Junior

57'

A. Febas← S. Sevilla

62'

A. Morata← D. Costa

62'

Renan Lodi← Renan Lodi

68'

D. Costa

70'

F. Gamez← J. Sastre

70'

Cucho← A. Prats

79'

Koke

80'

Saul← Thomas

80'

I. Baba← P. Chavarria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoMallorca

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots13

4Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target1

7Off Target6

5Blocked6

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

482Total Passes501

409Accurate Passes410

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1