Atletico Madrid 2–1 Juventus: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Juventus

8/10/2019

International Champions Cup · Group Stage - 2Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Madrid49%

×Draw26%

Juventus25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Atletico Madrid

1.50

Juventus

1.00

Atletico Madrid creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

1.00

Juventus

1.00

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

1.00

Juventus

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.00on par

Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

75%

Atletico Madrid or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

25%

Juventus wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

19%

Juventus 1+ goals

63%

Juventus 2+ goals

26%

Juventus 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

66%

Juventus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 1.00 + Juventus defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Juventus attack 1.00 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

49%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

25%

Atletico Madrid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff