Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Madrid U19 vs Lazio U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Atlético Madrid U19
Atlético Madrid U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lazio U19
Lazio U19
12/13/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Centro Deportivo Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Madrid U1943%
×Draw25%
Lazio U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid U19
1.54
Lazio U19
1.28

Atlético Madrid U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid U19
2.09
Lazio U19
1.33

allows per match

Atlético Madrid U19
1.23
Lazio U19
1.00

finishing

Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par
Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid U19 or draw
68%
Atlético Madrid U19 or Lazio U19
75%
Draw or Lazio U19
57%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+
22%
Lazio U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals
20%
Lazio U19 1+ goals
72%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
37%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 2.09 + Lazio U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lazio U19 attack 1.33 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Madrid U19 scores more
43%
level
25%
Lazio U19 scores more
32%

Atlético Madrid U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Atlético Madrid U19 0–1 Lazio U19

Lazio U19 beat Atlético Madrid U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Alcalá de Henares in Madrid.