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Atlético Madrid U19 vs Feyenoord U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Atlético Madrid U19
Atlético Madrid U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Feyenoord U19
Feyenoord U19
10/4/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Centro Deportivo Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlético Madrid U1940%
×Draw21%
Feyenoord U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid U19
1.92
Feyenoord U19
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid U19
2.09
Feyenoord U19
2.50

allows per match

Atlético Madrid U19
1.23
Feyenoord U19
1.75

finishing

Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par
Feyenoord U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid U19 ↓

Feyenoord U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid U19 or draw
62%
Atlético Madrid U19 or Feyenoord U19
79%
Draw or Feyenoord U19
60%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+
22%
Feyenoord U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals
57%
Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals
30%
Feyenoord U19 1+ goals
84%
Feyenoord U19 2+ goals
55%
Feyenoord U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Feyenoord U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Feyenoord U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 2.09 + Feyenoord U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.92

Feyenoord U19 attack 2.50 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Madrid U19 scores more
40%
level
21%
Feyenoord U19 scores more
38%

Atlético Madrid U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid U19 vs Feyenoord U19

Feyenoord U19 beat Atlético Madrid U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Alcalá de Henares in Madrid.