Atlético Madrid U19 4–0 Celtic U19: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Celtic U19

11/7/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Centro Deportivo Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético Madrid U1962%

×Draw20%

Celtic U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid U19Expected goals in this matchCeltic U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.11

Atlético Madrid U19

2.21

Celtic U19

1.11

Atlético Madrid U19 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

2.09

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Atlético Madrid U19

2.09

Celtic U19

1.00

allows per match

Atlético Madrid U19

1.23

Celtic U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par

Celtic U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid U19 ↓

Celtic U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid U19 or draw

82%

Atlético Madrid U19 or Celtic U19

80%

Draw or Celtic U19

38%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+

39%

Celtic U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals

89%

Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals

65%

Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals

38%

Celtic U19 1+ goals

67%

Celtic U19 2+ goals

30%

Celtic U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Celtic U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Celtic U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 2.09 + Celtic U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Celtic U19 attack 1.00 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Madrid U19 scores more

62%

level

20%

Celtic U19 scores more

18%

Atlético Madrid U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff