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Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
Preview
15:00
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
9/13/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3
Big match
42%
Atlético Madrid II
model favours
42%28%30%

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Madrid II42%
×Draw28%
Real Murcia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.29
Real Murcia
1.04

Atlético Madrid II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
1.60
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.91
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
70%
Atlético Madrid II or Real Murcia
72%
Draw or Real Murcia
58%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
19%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
65%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
28%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
58%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
42%
level
28%
Real Murcia scores more
30%

Atlético Madrid II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LDWLW
Murcia
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia — Match Preview

Atlético Madrid II face Real Murcia on September 13, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.