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Atlético Madrid II vs Peña Deportiva — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
9/1/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Madrid II63%
×Draw20%
Peña Deportiva16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
2.06
Peña Deportiva
0.93

Atlético Madrid II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.20
Peña Deportiva
1.14

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.73
Peña Deportiva
1.93

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Peña Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
84%
Atlético Madrid II or Peña Deportiva
80%
Draw or Peña Deportiva
37%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
39%
Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
87%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
61%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
34%
Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
61%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
24%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
80%
Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
63%
level
20%
Peña Deportiva scores more
16%

Atlético Madrid II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Madrid II 1–3 Peña Deportiva

Peña Deportiva beat Atlético Madrid II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.