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Atlético Madrid II vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
1/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Madrid II67%
×Draw21%
Marino de Luanco13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.95
Marino de Luanco
0.71

Atlético Madrid II creates 175% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.20
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.73
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
87%
Atlético Madrid II or Marino de Luanco
79%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
33%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
41%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
31%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
51%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
16%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
84%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
67%
level
21%
Marino de Luanco scores more
13%

Atlético Madrid II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II 3 – 0 Marino de Luanco

Atlético Madrid II beat Marino de Luanco 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.