Atlético Madrid II 3–2 Marbella: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Marbella

Rayane Belaid 88', 30'

Javier Boñar 35'

Du Yuezheng 90+1'

E. Ohemeng 25'

12/1/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Madrid II55%

×Draw24%

Marbella21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchMarbella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.98

Atlético Madrid II

1.75

Marbella

0.98

Atlético Madrid II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.60

creates per match

1.05

0.91

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

1.60

Marbella

1.05

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.91

Marbella

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Marbella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

79%

Atlético Madrid II or Marbella

76%

Draw or Marbella

45%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

31%

Marbella wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

25%

Marbella 1+ goals

62%

Marbella 2+ goals

26%

Marbella 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

72%

Marbella (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Marbella defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Marbella attack 1.05 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

55%

level

24%

Marbella scores more

21%

Atlético Madrid II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

25'

30'

35'

60'

61'

Iker Luque← Pablo Pérez

61'

Julio Díaz← Omar Janneh

64'

Du Yuezheng← Marcos Peña

64'

Jony Álamo← Marcos Olguín

64'

Jorge Álvarez← R. Edwards

69'

Íñigo Alayeto← E. Ohemeng

71'

M. Diallo Selu

75'

Aitor Puñal← Javi Duarte

81'

Jano Monserrate← Adrián Niño

81'

Joaquín← S. Diallo

85'

J. Gonzalez

88'

Rayane Belaid

89'

S. El Jebari← Aitor Gismera

90+1'

Du Yuezheng

Atlético

Marbella

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Torres

61'▲Iker Luque←▼Pablo Pérez

61'▲Julio Díaz←▼Omar Janneh

81'▲Jano Monserrate←▼Adrián Niño

81'▲Joaquín←▼S. Diallo

89'▲S. El Jebari←▼Aitor Gismera

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

LuqueDíazMonserrateJoaquínJebariRaihaniGarcíaMestanzaGiménezEmbadjéSerrano

Manager: Fran Beltrán

64'▲Du Yuezheng←▼Marcos Peña

64'▲Jony Álamo←▼Marcos Olguín

64'▲Jorge Álvarez←▼R. Edwards

69'▲Íñigo Alayeto←▼E. Ohemeng

75'▲Aitor Puñal←▼Javi Duarte

Marbella substitutes

YuezhengÁlamoÁlvarezAlayetoPuñalLejárragaSolskyAssiCarrascoLancha

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Madrid II 3–2 Marbella

Atlético Madrid II beat Marbella 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 1, 2024.

Goals: E. Ohemeng (25'), Rayane Belaid (30', 88'), Javier Boñar (35'), Du Yuezheng (90+1').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Atlético Madrid II vs Marbella — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Madrid II 3–2 Marbella