Atlético Madrid II 0–1 Malaga: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Malaga

4/14/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Madrid II37%

×Draw28%

Malaga35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.17

Atlético Madrid II

1.22

Malaga

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.60

creates per match

1.42

0.91

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

1.60

Malaga

1.42

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.91

Malaga

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

65%

Atlético Madrid II or Malaga

72%

Draw or Malaga

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

16%

Malaga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

34%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

12%

Malaga 1+ goals

69%

Malaga 2+ goals

33%

Malaga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

52%

Malaga (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Malaga away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Malaga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.22

Malaga attack 1.42 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

37%

level

28%

Malaga scores more

35%

Atlético Madrid II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff