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Atletico Lodigiani vs Savoia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Lodigiani
Atletico Lodigiani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Savoia
Savoia
11/17/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Centro Sportivo Francesca Gianni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Lodigiani45%
×Draw27%
Savoia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Lodigiani
1.41
Savoia
1.07

Atletico Lodigiani creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Lodigiani
1.53
Savoia
0.88

allows per match

Atletico Lodigiani
1.26
Savoia
1.29

finishing

Atletico Lodigiani+0.00on par
Savoia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Lodigiani ↓

Savoia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Lodigiani or draw
71%
Atletico Lodigiani or Savoia
73%
Draw or Savoia
55%

Winning margin

Atletico Lodigiani wins by 2+
21%
Savoia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atletico Lodigiani 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Lodigiani 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Lodigiani 3+ goals
17%
Savoia 1+ goals
66%
Savoia 2+ goals
29%
Savoia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Lodigiani (draw refunded)
61%
Savoia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Lodigiani at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Savoia away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Lodigiani attack 1.53 + Savoia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Savoia attack 0.88 + Atletico Lodigiani defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Lodigiani scores more
45%
level
27%
Savoia scores more
29%

Atletico Lodigiani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Lodigiani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Atletico Lodigiani 0–0 Savoia

Atletico Lodigiani and Savoia drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Francesca Gianni in Roma.