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Atletico Lodigiani vs Puteolana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Lodigiani
Atletico Lodigiani
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Puteolana
Puteolana
Bencivenga Pietro 50' (pen)
S. Sorrentino 43'
Unknown 0', 0'
10/19/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Centro Sportivo Francesca Gianni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Lodigiani40%
×Draw26%
Puteolana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Lodigiani
1.39
Puteolana
1.25

Atletico Lodigiani creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Lodigiani
1.53
Puteolana
1.24

allows per match

Atletico Lodigiani
1.26
Puteolana
1.24

finishing

Atletico Lodigiani+0.00on par
Puteolana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Lodigiani ↓

Puteolana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Lodigiani or draw
66%
Atletico Lodigiani or Puteolana
74%
Draw or Puteolana
60%

Winning margin

Atletico Lodigiani wins by 2+
19%
Puteolana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atletico Lodigiani 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Lodigiani 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Lodigiani 3+ goals
16%
Puteolana 1+ goals
71%
Puteolana 2+ goals
36%
Puteolana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Lodigiani (draw refunded)
54%
Puteolana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Lodigiani at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Puteolana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Lodigiani attack 1.53 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Puteolana attack 1.24 + Atletico Lodigiani defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Lodigiani scores more
40%
level
26%
Puteolana scores more
34%

Atletico Lodigiani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Lodigiani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'
0'
43'
S. Sorrentino
50'
Bencivenga PietroPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Lodigiani vs Puteolana

Atletico Lodigiani and Puteolana drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on October 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (0', 0'), S. Sorrentino (43'), Bencivenga Pietro (50' pen).

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Francesca Gianni in Roma.