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Atlético La Cruz vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
8/13/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 18Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético La Cruz51%
×Draw29%
Libertador FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético La Cruz
1.32
Libertador FC
0.73

Atlético La Cruz creates 81% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 45 away

creates per match

Atlético La Cruz
1.31
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Atlético La Cruz
0.73
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético La Cruz ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético La Cruz or draw
79%
Atlético La Cruz or Libertador FC
71%
Draw or Libertador FC
49%

Winning margin

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
24%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
73%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
38%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
15%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
52%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
17%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
71%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético La Cruz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.31 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Atlético La Cruz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético La Cruz scores more
51%
level
29%
Libertador FC scores more
21%

Atlético La Cruz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético La Cruz vs Libertador FC

Atlético La Cruz beat Libertador FC 1-0 in Segunda División on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.