Atlético La Cruz 1–0 Fundacion AIFI: Result & Stats

Atlético La Cruz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fundacion AIFI

8/21/2024

Segunda División · Clausura - 4Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atlético La Cruz53%

×Draw27%

Fundacion AIFI20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético La CruzExpected goals in this matchFundacion AIFI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.79

Atlético La Cruz

1.45

Fundacion AIFI

0.79

Atlético La Cruz creates 84% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 66 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

0.73

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Atlético La Cruz

1.31

Fundacion AIFI

0.85

allows per match

Atlético La Cruz

0.73

Fundacion AIFI

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético La Cruz ↓

Fundacion AIFI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético La Cruz or draw

80%

Atlético La Cruz or Fundacion AIFI

73%

Draw or Fundacion AIFI

47%

Winning margin

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+

27%

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals

77%

Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals

42%

Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals

18%

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals

55%

Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals

19%

Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)

72%

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético La Cruz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.31 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Atlético La Cruz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético La Cruz scores more

53%

level

27%

Fundacion AIFI scores more

20%

Atlético La Cruz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff