Atlético La Cruz 2–1 Angostura FC: Result & Stats

Atlético La Cruz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Angostura FC

5/15/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 7Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atlético La Cruz46%

×Draw29%

Angostura FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético La CruzExpected goals in this matchAngostura FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.89

Atlético La Cruz

1.29

Angostura FC

0.89

Atlético La Cruz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 74 away

1.31

creates per match

1.05

0.73

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Atlético La Cruz

1.31

Angostura FC

1.05

allows per match

Atlético La Cruz

0.73

Angostura FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético La Cruz ↓

Angostura FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético La Cruz or draw

74%

Atlético La Cruz or Angostura FC

71%

Draw or Angostura FC

54%

Winning margin

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+

21%

Angostura FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals

72%

Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals

37%

Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals

14%

Angostura FC 1+ goals

59%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

22%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)

64%

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético La Cruz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.31 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Atlético La Cruz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético La Cruz scores more

46%

level

29%

Angostura FC scores more

26%

Atlético La Cruz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff