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Atlético Ibañés vs Torrijos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torrijos
Torrijos
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 25Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Ibañés46%
×Draw28%
Torrijos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Ibañés
1.33
Torrijos
0.94

Atlético Ibañés creates 41% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 74 away

creates per match

Atlético Ibañés
1.30
Torrijos
0.92

allows per match

Atlético Ibañés
0.96
Torrijos
1.36

finishing

Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par
Torrijos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ibañés ↓

Torrijos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Ibañés or draw
74%
Atlético Ibañés or Torrijos
72%
Draw or Torrijos
54%

Winning margin

Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
21%
Torrijos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
15%
Torrijos 1+ goals
61%
Torrijos 2+ goals
24%
Torrijos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
63%
Torrijos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ibañés at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Torrijos away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.30 + Torrijos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torrijos attack 0.92 + Atlético Ibañés defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Ibañés scores more
46%
level
28%
Torrijos scores more
26%

Atlético Ibañés at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Ibañés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Ibañés 1 – 1 Torrijos

Atlético Ibañés and Torrijos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés in Casas-Ibañés.