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Atlético Ibañés vs Madridejos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Madridejos
Madridejos
9/7/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 3Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Ibañés54%
×Draw26%
Madridejos20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Ibañés
1.54
Madridejos
0.82

Atlético Ibañés creates 88% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atlético Ibañés
1.30
Madridejos
0.69

allows per match

Atlético Ibañés
0.96
Madridejos
1.79

finishing

Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par
Madridejos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ibañés ↓

Madridejos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Ibañés or draw
80%
Atlético Ibañés or Madridejos
74%
Draw or Madridejos
46%

Winning margin

Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
28%
Madridejos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
20%
Madridejos 1+ goals
56%
Madridejos 2+ goals
20%
Madridejos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
73%
Madridejos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ibañés at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Madridejos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.30 + Madridejos defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Madridejos attack 0.69 + Atlético Ibañés defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Ibañés scores more
54%
level
26%
Madridejos scores more
20%

Atlético Ibañés at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Ibañés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Atlético Ibañés 3–0 Madridejos

Atlético Ibañés beat Madridejos 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés in Casas-Ibañés.