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Atlético Ibañés vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
CANC
00:00
Conquense
Conquense
4/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Ibañés35%
×Draw29%
Conquense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Ibañés
1.08
Conquense
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Ibañés
1.30
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Atlético Ibañés
0.96
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ibañés ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Ibañés or draw
64%
Atlético Ibañés or Conquense
71%
Draw or Conquense
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
14%
Conquense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
10%
Conquense 1+ goals
66%
Conquense 2+ goals
30%
Conquense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
50%
Conquense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ibañés at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.30 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Conquense attack 1.22 + Atlético Ibañés defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Ibañés scores more
35%
level
29%
Conquense scores more
36%

Conquense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Ibañés vs Conquense — Match Preview

Atlético Ibañés face Conquense on April 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atlético Ibañés host Conquense at Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.