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Atlético Ibañés vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
CANC
00:00
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 31Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Ibañés41%
×Draw29%
Calvo Sotelo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Ibañés
1.20
Calvo Sotelo
0.98

Atlético Ibañés creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 93 away

creates per match

Atlético Ibañés
1.30
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Atlético Ibañés
0.96
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ibañés ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Ibañés or draw
70%
Atlético Ibañés or Calvo Sotelo
71%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
18%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
12%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
62%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
26%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
58%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ibañés at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.30 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Atlético Ibañés defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Ibañés scores more
41%
level
29%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
30%

Atlético Ibañés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Ibañés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Ibañés vs Calvo Sotelo — Match Preview

Atlético Ibañés face Calvo Sotelo on March 29, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atlético Ibañés host Calvo Sotelo at Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.