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Atlético Ibañés vs Almagro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
CANC
22:00
Almagro
Almagro
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 38Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Ibañés57%
×Draw24%
Almagro18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Ibañés
1.65
Almagro
0.81

Atlético Ibañés creates 104% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atlético Ibañés
1.30
Almagro
0.66

allows per match

Atlético Ibañés
0.96
Almagro
2.00

finishing

Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ibañés ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Ibañés or draw
82%
Atlético Ibañés or Almagro
76%
Draw or Almagro
43%

Winning margin

Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
31%
Almagro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
23%
Almagro 1+ goals
56%
Almagro 2+ goals
19%
Almagro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
76%
Almagro (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ibañés at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.30 + Almagro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Almagro attack 0.66 + Atlético Ibañés defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Ibañés scores more
57%
level
24%
Almagro scores more
18%

Atlético Ibañés at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Ibañés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Ibañés face Almagro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 returns with Atlético Ibañés hosting Almagro. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlético Ibañés host Almagro at Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.