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Atlético Huila W vs Deportes Tolima W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Huila W
Atlético Huila W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Tolima W
Deportes Tolima W
3/27/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 8Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Huila W52%
×Draw23%
Deportes Tolima W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Huila W
1.84
Deportes Tolima W
1.22

Atlético Huila W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atlético Huila W
1.19
Deportes Tolima W
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Huila W
1.44
Deportes Tolima W
2.50

finishing

Atlético Huila W+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Huila W ↓

Deportes Tolima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Atlético Huila W or draw
75%
Atlético Huila W or Deportes Tolima W
77%
Draw or Deportes Tolima W
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Huila W wins by 2+
29%
Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Huila W 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Huila W 2+ goals
55%
Atlético Huila W 3+ goals
28%
Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals
70%
Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals
34%
Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)
67%
Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Huila W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Deportes Tolima W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Huila W attack 1.19 + Deportes Tolima W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Deportes Tolima W attack 1.00 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Huila W scores more
52%
level
23%
Deportes Tolima W scores more
25%

Atlético Huila W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Huila W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Huila W 1–1 Deportes Tolima W

Atlético Huila W and Deportes Tolima W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.