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Atlético Huila W vs Boyacá Chicó W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Huila W
Atlético Huila W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Boyacá Chicó W
Boyacá Chicó W
4/3/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 9Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético Huila W30%
×Draw31%
Boyacá Chicó W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Huila W
0.91
Boyacá Chicó W
1.09

Boyacá Chicó W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Atlético Huila W
1.19
Boyacá Chicó W
0.75

allows per match

Atlético Huila W
1.44
Boyacá Chicó W
0.63

finishing

Atlético Huila W+0.00on par
Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Huila W ↓

Boyacá Chicó W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atlético Huila W or draw
61%
Atlético Huila W or Boyacá Chicó W
69%
Draw or Boyacá Chicó W
70%

Winning margin

Atlético Huila W wins by 2+
10%
Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Huila W 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Huila W 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Huila W 3+ goals
6%
Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals
66%
Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals
30%
Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)
43%
Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Huila W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Boyacá Chicó W away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Huila W attack 1.19 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.91

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.75 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Huila W scores more
30%
level
31%
Boyacá Chicó W scores more
39%

Boyacá Chicó W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Boyacá Chicó W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Huila W 1–1 Boyacá Chicó W

Atlético Huila W and Boyacá Chicó W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.