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Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
Preview
20:30
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
7/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Ambrosio Maco Arroyo
Big match
54%
Atletico Grau
model favours
54%25%21%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Atletico Grau54%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.60
UTC Cajamarca
0.90

Atletico Grau creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.30
UTC Cajamarca
0.89

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.90
UTC Cajamarca
1.91

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
79%
Atletico Grau or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
46%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
29%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
22%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
59%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
23%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
72%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.91 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.30 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Atletico Grau defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
54%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
21%

Atletico Grau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Atletico Grau’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 83% of Atletico Grau’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Atletico Grau score first in only 25% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Atletico Grau
Balanced
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
53%PossessionBiggest gap47%
80%Pass accuracy76%
11.5Shots11.8
1.00xG0.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico GrauUTC Cajamarca

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Atletico Grau
0
Draws
3
UTC Cajamarca
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 20%
0–20–22–04–02–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grau
DDWWL
Cajamarca
WWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Grau face UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Atletico Grau hosting UTC Cajamarca. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atletico Grau host UTC Cajamarca at Ambrosio Maco Arroyo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.