Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Atletico Grau54%
UTC Cajamarca21%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Grau creates 78% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 44 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Grau ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches
UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.91 · 44 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Grau attack 1.30 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60
UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Atletico Grau defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Atletico Grau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport BoysAtletico Grau
Juan Pablo II CollegeUTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atletico Grau host UTC Cajamarca on Monday, 30 September 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau beat UTC Cajamarca 4-0 in Primera División on September 30, 2024.
Goals: N. Bandiera (30', 56'), P. de la Cruz (89'), T. Sandoval (90+4' pen).
Atletico Grau controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 5.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Bernal in Humay.