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Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
7/23/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atletico Grau52%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.58
UTC Cajamarca
0.96

Atletico Grau creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 144 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.53
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
77%
Atletico Grau or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
48%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
27%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
21%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
62%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
25%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
69%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
52%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
23%

Atletico Grau at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Atletico Grau 3–1 UTC Cajamarca

Atletico Grau beat UTC Cajamarca 3-1 in Primera División on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Bernal in Humay.