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Atletico Grau vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
4/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Atletico Grau78%
×Draw15%
Sport Victoria8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.55
Sport Victoria
0.67

Atletico Grau creates 281% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
92%
Atletico Grau or Sport Victoria
85%
Draw or Sport Victoria
22%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
56%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
92%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
72%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
46%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
49%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
15%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
91%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.55

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
78%
level
15%
Sport Victoria scores more
8%

Atletico Grau at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Sport Victoria

Atletico Grau beat Sport Victoria 5-1 in Segunda División on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura).