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Atletico Grau vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
8/5/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atletico Grau65%
×Draw19%
Sport Chavelines Juniors16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.32
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.06

Atletico Grau creates 119% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
84%
Atletico Grau or Sport Chavelines Juniors
81%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
35%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
42%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
90%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
67%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
40%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
65%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
29%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
80%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.32

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
65%
level
19%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
16%

Atletico Grau at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Sport Chavelines Juniors

Atletico Grau and Sport Chavelines Juniors drew 2-2 in Segunda División on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.