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Atletico Grau vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
7/21/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Atletico Grau75%
×Draw14%
LOS Caimanes10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.88
LOS Caimanes
0.99

Atletico Grau creates 191% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
90%
Atletico Grau or LOS Caimanes
86%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
25%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
55%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
94%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
78%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
54%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
63%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
26%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
88%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.88

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
75%
level
14%
LOS Caimanes scores more
10%

Atletico Grau at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Grau 3 – 2 LOS Caimanes

Atletico Grau beat LOS Caimanes 3-2 in Segunda División on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Bernal in Humay.