Atletico Grau 3–0 Juan Aurich: Result & Stats

Atletico Grau

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juan Aurich

5/19/2019

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Atletico Grau64%

×Draw19%

Juan Aurich16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchJuan Aurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.02

Atletico Grau

2.23

Juan Aurich

1.02

Atletico Grau creates 119% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 69 away

2.79

creates per match

1.23

0.82

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Atletico Grau

2.79

Juan Aurich

1.23

allows per match

Atletico Grau

0.82

Juan Aurich

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Juan Aurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

84%

Atletico Grau or Juan Aurich

81%

Draw or Juan Aurich

36%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

41%

Juan Aurich wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

89%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

65%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

38%

Juan Aurich 1+ goals

64%

Juan Aurich 2+ goals

27%

Juan Aurich 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

80%

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.23

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

64%

level

19%

Juan Aurich scores more

16%

Atletico Grau at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff