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Atletico Grau vs FC Cajamarca — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
P. Alvarez 36' (pen)
3/6/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atletico Grau54%
×Draw25%
FC Cajamarca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.61
FC Cajamarca
0.90

Atletico Grau creates 79% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.55
FC Cajamarca
0.78

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
FC Cajamarca
1.67

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
FC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

FC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
79%
Atletico Grau or FC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or FC Cajamarca
46%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
29%
FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
48%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
22%
FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
59%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
23%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
72%
FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 93 matches

FC Cajamarca away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.55 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Cajamarca attack 0.78 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
54%
level
25%
FC Cajamarca scores more
21%

Atletico Grau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. MosqueraFC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca · G
7.7

Match Events

36'
P. AlvarezPenalty
37'
Rodrigo Tapia
42'
Christian Neira
46'
J. G. Orejuela← S. Pineau
52'
Arley Rodríguez
57'
H. Barcos← A. Rodriguez
57'
J. Betancourt← P. Miguez
59'
Isaac Camargo
69'
A. de la Cruz← E. Franco
69'
C. Vásquez← I. Camargo
69'
A. Flores← N. Delgadillo
73'
E. Correa← D. Barreto
75'
B. Palacios← M. Arrasco
84'
H. Espinoza← C. Neira

Possession

41%Atletico

Shots

9Atletico

Pass accuracy

47%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoFC
Overview
41%Possession59%
9Total Shots8
1.89Expected Goals (xG)0.49
3Corners1
17Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots8
6On Target1
2Off Target5
1Blocked2
7Inside Box7
2Outside Box1
Passing
41%Possession59%
335Total Passes478
239Accurate Passes381
71%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Primera División: Atletico Grau 1–0 FC Cajamarca

Atletico Grau beat FC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on March 6, 2026.

Goals: P. Alvarez (36' pen).

FC Cajamarca controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.