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Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
8/15/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Atletico Grau56%
×Draw24%
Comerciantes Unidos20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.75
Comerciantes Unidos
0.95

Atletico Grau creates 84% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 63 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.53
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
80%
Atletico Grau or Comerciantes Unidos
76%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
44%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
31%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
83%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
25%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
61%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
25%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
73%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.75

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
56%
level
24%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
20%

Atletico Grau at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos beat Atletico Grau 2-1 in Primera División on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.