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Atletico Grau vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
9/22/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atletico Grau75%
×Draw15%
Carlos Stein10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.79
Carlos Stein
0.96

Atletico Grau creates 191% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
90%
Atletico Grau or Carlos Stein
85%
Draw or Carlos Stein
25%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
54%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
94%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
76%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
52%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
62%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
88%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.79

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
75%
level
15%
Carlos Stein scores more
10%

Atletico Grau at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atletico Grau 2–0 Carlos Stein

Atletico Grau beat Carlos Stein 2-0 in Segunda División on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.