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Atletico Grau vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
PST
20:00
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
9/27/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atletico Grau55%
×Draw24%
Carlos Stein21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.72
Carlos Stein
0.96

Atletico Grau creates 79% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.53
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
79%
Atletico Grau or Carlos Stein
76%
Draw or Carlos Stein
45%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
31%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
51%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
62%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
72%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.72

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
55%
level
24%
Carlos Stein scores more
21%

Atletico Grau at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Grau vs Carlos Stein — Match Preview

Atletico Grau face Carlos Stein on September 27, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.