Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Vila Nova: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vila Nova

Yuri Alves 66'

10/18/2025

Serie B · Round 33Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Atletico Goianiense49%

×Draw27%

Vila Nova24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.93

Atletico Goianiense

1.46

Vila Nova

0.93

Atletico Goianiense creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.60

creates per match

0.95

0.91

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.60

Vila Nova

0.95

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.91

Vila Nova

1.32

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.29scores less

Vila Nova+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

76%

Atletico Goianiense or Vila Nova

73%

Draw or Vila Nova

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

25%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

18%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

61%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

24%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

67%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 16 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.60 + Vila Nova defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vila Nova attack 0.95 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

49%

level

27%

Vila Nova scores more

24%

Atletico Goianiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Vitor

Atletico Goianiense · G

8.2

Match Events

35'

Pedro Romano

44'

Tito

46'

Jean Dias← Dudu Marques

56'

Maranhao← Lele

63'

Vinicius Paiva← Andre Luis

66'

Yuri Alves

68'

Valdir Junior← F. Martinez

68'

Ariel← Robert Conceicao

72'

Dodo← Ralf

72'

Bruno Mendes← Gabriel Poveda

76'

79'

79'

79'

79'

79'

79'

Elias Lira Nogueira Júnior

82'

Jean Mota← Igor Henrique

82'

Gustavo Paje← Guilherme Parede

83'

Kelvin← Yuri Alves

90'

Vinicius Paiva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoVila

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots10

1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.93

1Corners2

11Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots10

4On Target4

8Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

278Total Passes308

220Accurate Passes247

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls20

4Yellow Cards6

3Offsides2