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Atletico Goianiense vs Operario-PR — Serie B 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
Preview
22:30
Operario-PR
Operario-PR
7/27/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 20
55%
Atletico Goianiense
model favours
55%24%21%

Operario-PR have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Atletico Goianiense55%
×Draw24%
Operario-PR21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.69
Operario-PR
0.95

Atletico Goianiense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.65
Operario-PR
1.03

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
0.86
Operario-PR
1.73

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.36scores less
Operario-PR+0.05on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Operario-PR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
79%
Atletico Goianiense or Operario-PR
76%
Draw or Operario-PR
45%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
30%
Operario-PR wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
50%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
24%
Operario-PR 1+ goals
61%
Operario-PR 2+ goals
25%
Operario-PR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
72%
Operario-PR (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.65 + Operario-PR defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Operario-PR attack 1.03 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
55%
level
24%
Operario-PR scores more
21%

Atletico Goianiense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Operario-PR are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • 84% of Atletico Goianiense’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Atletico Goianiense score first in only 26% of matches
  • Atletico Goianiense sit 12, Operario-PR 2 in the table
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Atletico Goianiense
Balanced
Operario-PR
Balanced
51%Possession52%
80%Pass accuracy81%
13.7Shots13.7
1.44xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico GoianienseOperario-PR

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
2
Operario-PR
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 0%
0–10–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Goianiense
DWLWD
Operario-PR
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Goianiense host Operario-PR

July 27, 2026: Atletico Goianiense take on Operario-PR in Serie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.