Atletico Goianiense 1–2 Nautico Recife

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nautico Recife

Leo Jaco 41'

Igor Fernandes 82'

Vinicius 78'

4/1/2026

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Goianiense53%

×Draw24%

Nautico Recife23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.02

Atletico Goianiense

1.68

Nautico Recife

1.02

Atletico Goianiense creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.65

creates per match

1.18

0.86

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.65

Nautico Recife

1.18

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.86

Nautico Recife

1.71

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.36scores less

Nautico Recife+0.60scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

77%

Atletico Goianiense or Nautico Recife

76%

Draw or Nautico Recife

47%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

29%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

81%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

50%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

24%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

64%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

27%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

70%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.65 + Nautico Recife defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Nautico Recife attack 1.18 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

53%

level

24%

Nautico Recife scores more

23%

Atletico Goianiense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Guilherme

Atletico Goianiense · M

8.6

Match Events

38'

Luiz Felipe

41'

Leo Jaco↳ Guilherme

46'

Igor Fernandes← Betao

46'

Leonai Souza← Luiz Felipe

50'

Leonai Souza de Almeida

55'

Victor Andrade← Juninho

55'

Felipe Saraiva← Vitinho

69'

Matheus Indio← Igor Henrique

78'

Vinicius↳ Yuri

80'

Vitinho Lopes← Guilherme

80'

Geovany Soares← Leo Jaco

80'

Wanderson← Mateus Silva

82'

Igor Fernandes↳ Dodo

83'

Jader← Cristiano

84'

Felipe Guimaraes← Ewerthon

85'

88'

90+9'

90+5'

90+8'

Felipe SaraivaPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoNautico

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots9

1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.75

7Corners1

22Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots9

2On Target4

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

311Total Passes333

247Accurate Passes267

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01

Discipline

22Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife beat Atletico Goianiense 2-1 in Serie B on April 1, 2026.

Goals: Leo Jaco (41'), Vinicius (78'), Igor Fernandes (82').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia.

Atletico Goianiense vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Nautico Recife