Atletico Goianiense 2–0 BOA: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BOA

Bruno Santos 59'

Renato Kayzer 55'

7/4/2018

Serie B · Round 14Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atletico Goianiense58%

×Draw26%

BOA16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchBOA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.66

Atletico Goianiense

1.51

BOA

0.66

Atletico Goianiense creates 129% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

1.59

creates per match

0.43

0.89

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.59

BOA

0.43

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.89

BOA

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

BOA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

84%

Atletico Goianiense or BOA

74%

Draw or BOA

42%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

30%

BOA wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

19%

BOA 1+ goals

48%

BOA 2+ goals

14%

BOA 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

78%

BOA (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

BOA away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.59 + BOA defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.51

BOA attack 0.43 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

58%

level

26%

BOA scores more

16%

Atletico Goianiense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Luan

30'

Jonathan Fernandes

46'

Romulo← Fernandes

55'

Renato Kayzer↳ João Pedro

58'

Machado← Bruno Tubarão

59'

França← Willian Schuster

59'

Bruno Santos↳ Romulo

63'

William Barbio

64'

Lucas Rocha

65'

Felipe Alves← William Barbio

76'

Tomas Bastos← Renato Kayzer

85'

Alisson

85'

França

89'

Djavan

89'

Wesley Natã← João Pedro

90'

Tomas Bastos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBOA

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots16

8Corners6

18Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots16

2On Target4

6Off Target8

4Blocked4

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box10

Passing

56%Possession44%

390Total Passes298

313Accurate Passes205

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs BOA

Atletico Goianiense beat BOA 2-0 in Serie B on July 4, 2018.

Goals: Renato Kayzer (55'), Bruno Santos (59').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Serra Dourada in Goiania.

Atletico Goianiense vs BOA — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs BOA