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Atlético GO U20 vs Itauçu U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Atlético GO U20
Atlético GO U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Itauçu U20
Itauçu U20
3/22/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 5SESI Multiparque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlético GO U2066%
×Draw18%
Itauçu U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético GO U20
2.52
Itauçu U20
1.17

Atlético GO U20 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Atlético GO U20
2.05
Itauçu U20
1.20

allows per match

Atlético GO U20
1.14
Itauçu U20
3.00

finishing

Atlético GO U20+0.00on par
Itauçu U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético GO U20 ↓

Itauçu U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Atlético GO U20 or draw
84%
Atlético GO U20 or Itauçu U20
82%
Draw or Itauçu U20
34%

Winning margin

Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+
44%
Itauçu U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético GO U20 1+ goals
92%
Atlético GO U20 2+ goals
71%
Atlético GO U20 3+ goals
45%
Itauçu U20 1+ goals
69%
Itauçu U20 2+ goals
33%
Itauçu U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético GO U20 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Itauçu U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético GO U20 attack 2.05 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.52

Itauçu U20 attack 1.20 + Atlético GO U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atlético GO U20 scores more
66%
level
18%
Itauçu U20 scores more
16%

Atlético GO U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Atlético GO U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Atlético GO U20 3–1 Itauçu U20

Atlético GO U20 beat Itauçu U20 3-1 in Goiano U20 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at SESI Multiparque in Goiânia, Goiás.