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Atlético GO U20 vs Gremio Anapolis U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Atlético GO U20
Atlético GO U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gremio Anapolis U20
Gremio Anapolis U20
Unknown 90+4', 63'
C. N. Antonio Jose d. 8'
Unknown 35', 7'
4/6/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 7SESI Multiparque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético GO U2052%
×Draw23%
Gremio Anapolis U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético GO U20
1.86
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.23

Atlético GO U20 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atlético GO U20
2.05
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.33

allows per match

Atlético GO U20
1.14
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.67

finishing

Atlético GO U20+0.00on par
Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético GO U20 ↓

Gremio Anapolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atlético GO U20 or draw
75%
Atlético GO U20 or Gremio Anapolis U20
77%
Draw or Gremio Anapolis U20
48%

Winning margin

Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+
29%
Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético GO U20 1+ goals
84%
Atlético GO U20 2+ goals
55%
Atlético GO U20 3+ goals
28%
Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals
71%
Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals
35%
Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético GO U20 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Gremio Anapolis U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético GO U20 attack 2.05 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.33 + Atlético GO U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético GO U20 scores more
52%
level
23%
Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more
25%

Atlético GO U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético GO U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
8'
C. N. Antonio Jose d.
35'
44'
63'
77'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Atlético GO U20 3–2 Gremio Anapolis U20

Atlético GO U20 beat Gremio Anapolis U20 3-2 in Goiano U20 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: ? (7', 35', 63', 90+4'), C. N. Antonio Jose d. (8').

The match was played at SESI Multiparque in Goiânia, Goiás.