Atletico GO U17 0–2 Vasco U17: Result & Stats

Atletico GO U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vasco U17

Pedro Augusto 58' (pen)

Gabriel Soares 2'

9/2/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 17Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atletico GO U1724%

×Draw22%

Vasco U1754%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GO U17Expected goals in this matchVasco U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.96

Atletico GO U17

1.24

Vasco U17

1.96

Vasco U17 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

0.88

creates per match

1.73

2.19

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Atletico GO U17

0.88

Vasco U17

1.73

allows per match

Atletico GO U17

2.19

Vasco U17

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico GO U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Atletico GO U17 or draw

46%

Atletico GO U17 or Vasco U17

78%

Draw or Vasco U17

76%

Winning margin

Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+

10%

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Atletico GO U17 1+ goals

71%

Atletico GO U17 2+ goals

35%

Atletico GO U17 3+ goals

13%

Vasco U17 1+ goals

86%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

58%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)

31%

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico GO U17 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.88 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Atletico GO U17 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico GO U17 scores more

24%

level

22%

Vasco U17 scores more

54%

Vasco U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Gabriel Soares

58'

Pedro AugustoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff