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Atletico GO U17 vs Santos U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atletico GO U17
Atletico GO U17
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santos U17
Santos U17
8/22/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 8Estádio Olímpico Pedro Ludovico Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico GO U1729%
×Draw23%
Santos U1748%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico GO U17
1.32
Santos U17
1.78

Santos U17 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Atletico GO U17
0.88
Santos U17
1.38

allows per match

Atletico GO U17
2.19
Santos U17
1.76

finishing

Atletico GO U17+0.00on par
Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico GO U17 ↓

Santos U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atletico GO U17 or draw
52%
Atletico GO U17 or Santos U17
77%
Draw or Santos U17
71%

Winning margin

Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+
12%
Santos U17 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Atletico GO U17 1+ goals
73%
Atletico GO U17 2+ goals
38%
Atletico GO U17 3+ goals
15%
Santos U17 1+ goals
83%
Santos U17 2+ goals
53%
Santos U17 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)
37%
Santos U17 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico GO U17 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.88 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + Atletico GO U17 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico GO U17 scores more
29%
level
23%
Santos U17 scores more
48%

Santos U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Atletico GO U17 2–1 Santos U17

Atletico GO U17 beat Santos U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Pedro Ludovico Teixeira in Goiânia, Goiás.