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Atletico FC vs San Antonio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B·2026
Atletico FC
Atletico FC
Preview
19:00
San Antonio
San Antonio
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 7:00 PM
Tournament
Liga Pro Serie B · Regular Season - 17
Big match
51%
Atletico FC
model favours
51%29%20%

Top-of-the-table clash — Atletico FC 4 vs San Antonio 3

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico FC51%
×Draw29%
San Antonio20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico FC
1.30
San Antonio
0.70

Atletico FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Atletico FC
1.40
San Antonio
1.00

allows per match

Atletico FC
0.40
San Antonio
1.20

finishing

Atletico FC+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico FC ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atletico FC or draw
80%
Atletico FC or San Antonio
71%
Draw or San Antonio
49%

Winning margin

Atletico FC wins by 2+
24%
San Antonio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico FC 1+ goals
73%
Atletico FC 2+ goals
37%
Atletico FC 3+ goals
14%
San Antonio 1+ goals
50%
San Antonio 2+ goals
16%
San Antonio 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico FC (draw refunded)
72%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico FC attack 1.40 + San Antonio defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

San Antonio attack 1.00 + Atletico FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico FC scores more
51%
level
29%
San Antonio scores more
20%

Atletico FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
DWWDW
Antonio
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico FC vs San Antonio — Match Preview

Atletico FC face San Antonio on July 16, 2026 in this Liga Pro Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.