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Atlético Espeleño vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Antolín 45+1'
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Atlético Espeleño49%
×Draw26%
La Palma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.51
La Palma
1.02

Atlético Espeleño creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
74%
Atlético Espeleño or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
25%
La Palma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
64%
La Palma 2+ goals
27%
La Palma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
65%
La Palma (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

La Palma attack 0.88 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
49%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
26%

Atlético Espeleño at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
Antolín
68'
Sergio Barrera← Álvaro Fernández
68'
Pedro Juan← Rafa Navarro
80'
Guille Roldán← Rubén Jurado
80'
Omar← Carlos Martínez
80'
Manolo Suárez← Álex Sánchez
81'
Rafael Rojas← Antolín
87'
Mate← Álex Molina
87'
Edu← Tena
Atlético
La
Antonio Rodríguez
Rodríguez
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
▼
Navarro
Carlos Martínez
▼
Martínez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Alejandro Pérez
Pérez
Y. Nwatsock
Nwatsock
Álvaro Fernández
▼
Fernández
Álex Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Gabi
Gabi
Pedro Caballero
Caballero
Fernando Recio
Recio
Tena
▼
Tena
Pablo Carmona
Carmona
Adriano Romero
Romero
Álex Molina
▼
Molina
Iván Sánchez
Sánchez
Antolín
⚽
▼
Antolín
Polaco
Polaco
Rubén Jurado
▼
Jurado
Josema
Josema
Juan Quero
Manager: Juan Quero
80'▲Guille Roldán←▼Rubén Jurado
81'▲Rafael Rojas←▼Antolín
87'▲Mate←▼Álex Molina
87'▲Edu←▼Tena

Atlético Espeleño substitutes

RoldánRojasMateEdu
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
68'▲Sergio Barrera←▼Álvaro Fernández
68'▲Pedro Juan←▼Rafa Navarro
80'▲Omar←▼Carlos Martínez
80'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Álex Sánchez

La Palma substitutes

BarreraJuanOmarSuárez

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs La Palma

Atlético Espeleño beat La Palma 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 28, 2024.

Goals: Antolín (45+1').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.