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Atlético Espeleño vs Cartaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Cartaya
Cartaya
10/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Espeleño49%
×Draw26%
Cartaya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.50
Cartaya
0.99

Atlético Espeleño creates 52% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Cartaya
0.82

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Cartaya
1.65

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Cartaya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Cartaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
75%
Atlético Espeleño or Cartaya
74%
Draw or Cartaya
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
25%
Cartaya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
19%
Cartaya 1+ goals
63%
Cartaya 2+ goals
26%
Cartaya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
66%
Cartaya (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Cartaya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Cartaya defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cartaya attack 0.82 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
49%
level
26%
Cartaya scores more
25%

Atlético Espeleño at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs Cartaya

Atlético Espeleño and Cartaya drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.