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Atlético Espeleño vs Atlético Onubense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 30Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Espeleño37%
×Draw27%
Atlético Onubense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.27
Atlético Onubense
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Atlético Onubense
1.35

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Atlético Onubense
1.18

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Atlético Onubense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
64%
Atlético Espeleño or Atlético Onubense
73%
Draw or Atlético Onubense
63%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
51%
Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Atlético Onubense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Atlético Onubense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Onubense attack 1.35 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
37%
level
27%
Atlético Onubense scores more
36%

Atlético Espeleño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Espeleño 1–4 Atlético Onubense

Atlético Onubense beat Atlético Espeleño 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.