Atletico el Vigia FC 1–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Atletico el Vigia FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fundación Lara Deportiva

8/3/2025

Segunda División · Apertura - 18Estadio Ramón "Gato" Hernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Atletico el Vigia FC44%

×Draw27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico el Vigia FCExpected goals in this matchFundación Lara Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.10

Atletico el Vigia FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 77 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.50

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.00

allows per match

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.20

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico el Vigia FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico el Vigia FC or draw

70%

Atletico el Vigia FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva

73%

Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva

56%

Winning margin

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+

21%

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals

75%

Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals

41%

Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals

17%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

67%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

30%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)

60%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico el Vigia FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 1.50 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more

44%

level

27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

30%

Atletico el Vigia FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico el Vigia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff