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Atletico el Vigia FC vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
CANC
00:00
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
3/21/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio Ramón Gato Hernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Atletico el Vigia FC53%
×Draw23%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.77
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.11

Atletico el Vigia FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.50
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.20
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico el Vigia FC ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atletico el Vigia FC or draw
76%
Atletico el Vigia FC or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
77%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
47%

Winning margin

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
83%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
53%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico el Vigia FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 1.50 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
53%
level
23%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
24%

Atletico el Vigia FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico el Vigia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico el Vigia FC face Deportivo JBL del Zulia (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Atletico el Vigia FC hosting Deportivo JBL del Zulia. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atletico el Vigia FC host Deportivo JBL del Zulia at Estadio Ramón Gato Hernández.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.