Atletico DE Rafaela 0–2 Platense: Result & Stats

Atletico DE Rafaela

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Platense

F. Baldassarra 77'

L. Recalde 3'

1/28/2021

Primera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Atletico DE Rafaela35%

×Draw29%

Platense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico DE RafaelaExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.12

Atletico DE Rafaela

1.10

Platense

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 24 away

1.21

creates per match

1.29

0.95

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atletico DE Rafaela

1.21

Platense

1.29

allows per match

Atletico DE Rafaela

0.95

Platense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico DE Rafaela ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico DE Rafaela or draw

64%

Atletico DE Rafaela or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

65%

Winning margin

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+

14%

Platense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals

67%

Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals

30%

Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals

10%

Platense 1+ goals

67%

Platense 2+ goals

31%

Platense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)

49%

Platense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico DE Rafaela at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 109 matches

Platense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 1.21 + Platense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Platense attack 1.29 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more

35%

level

29%

Platense scores more

36%

Platense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

L. Recalde

32'

R. Bochi← M. Bogado

44'

R. Castro← M. Valdivia

57'

F. Baldassarra← I. Schor

57'

T. Palacios← F. Curuchet

71'

J. Esquivel← G. Funes

77'

F. Baldassarra

79'

G. Lesman← A. Portillo

79'

A. Luna← E. Romero

80'

C. Marcial← J. Sinisterra

Atletico

Platense

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Otta

44'▲R. Castro←▼M. Valdivia

71'▲J. Esquivel←▼G. Funes

79'▲G. Lesman←▼A. Portillo

79'▲A. Luna←▼E. Romero

Atletico DE Rafaela substitutes

CastroEsquivelLesmanLunaPezziniSamaniegoSoloa

Manager: J. Llop

32'▲R. Bochi←▼M. Bogado

57'▲F. Baldassarra←▼I. Schor

57'▲T. Palacios←▼F. Curuchet

80'▲C. Marcial←▼J. Sinisterra

Platense substitutes

BochiBaldassarraPalaciosMarcialDesábatoCanutoVega