Atletico DE Rafaela 2–1 Gimnasia M.: Result & Stats

Atletico DE Rafaela

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gimnasia M.

12/27/2020

Primera Nacional · Upper Table Round - 5Estadio Nuevo Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atletico DE Rafaela39%

×Draw30%

Gimnasia M.31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico DE RafaelaExpected goals in this matchGimnasia M.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.94

Atletico DE Rafaela

1.10

Gimnasia M.

0.94

Atletico DE Rafaela creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 119 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

0.95

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Atletico DE Rafaela

1.21

Gimnasia M.

0.93

allows per match

Atletico DE Rafaela

0.95

Gimnasia M.

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Gimnasia M.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico DE Rafaela ↓

Gimnasia M. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atletico DE Rafaela or draw

69%

Atletico DE Rafaela or Gimnasia M.

70%

Draw or Gimnasia M.

61%

Winning margin

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+

16%

Gimnasia M. wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals

67%

Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals

30%

Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals

10%

Gimnasia M. 1+ goals

61%

Gimnasia M. 2+ goals

24%

Gimnasia M. 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)

56%

Gimnasia M. (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico DE Rafaela at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 110 matches

Gimnasia M. away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.99 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 1.21 + Gimnasia M. defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnasia M. attack 0.93 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more

39%

level

30%

Gimnasia M. scores more

31%

Atletico DE Rafaela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico DE Rafaela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff