Atlético CP 0–1 Vizela: Result & Stats

Atlético CP

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vizela

10/21/2023

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlético CP28%

×Draw30%

Vizela42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CPExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.16

Atlético CP

0.89

Vizela

1.16

Vizela creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

1.71

0.60

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Atlético CP

1.20

Vizela

1.71

allows per match

Atlético CP

0.60

Vizela

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Vizela →

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw

58%

Atlético CP or Vizela

70%

Draw or Vizela

72%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+

10%

Vizela wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals

59%

Atlético CP 2+ goals

22%

Atlético CP 3+ goals

Vizela 1+ goals

69%

Vizela 2+ goals

32%

Vizela 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)

40%

Vizela (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.20 + Vizela defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.89

Vizela attack 1.71 + Atlético CP defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético CP scores more

28%

level

30%

Vizela scores more

42%

Vizela at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff